Predictions Chapter 1: Reality and Illusions

Chapter Challenge
In a scenario that involves going back in time to the Middle Ages, a magician prepares three necklaces with a magical glow, each with a different life span of the glow that corresponds to the cost. Students are challenged to develop a statement, based on evidence, data, and measurements, that compares reality to the magician's claim that as long as a necklace glows, the wearer is protected from harm.

Chapter Summary
To gain understanding of the nature of science and the science principles of inquiry necessary to meet this challenge, students work collaboratively on activities in which they learn to make predictions based on data, patterns, and events. These experiences engage students in the content identified in the National Science Education Standards.

Activity Summaries

Physics Principles

Activity One: Optical Illusions

A variety of standard and unfamiliar optical illusions are used to introduce students to the limitations of visual observations. Measuring pictured objects provides students with data that helps them appreciate the value and need for collecting data.

• Measurement and data collection

Activity Two: Measurement

By comparing, then repeating, measurements that use different units, students learn that a measurement is an estimate and has inherent systematic and random errors. This provides students the opportunity to learn how to minimize errors & improve accuracy of measurements.

• Measurement and data collection
• Accuracy and reliability of measurements
• Using data as basis for predictions

Activity Three: Patterns

Students search for and identify patterns in objects, number sequences, and in their own measurements. NIM provides practice finding and using patterns and introduces them to the idea of using patterns to develop scientific theories.

• Organizing data
• Using data to make predictions
• Percent of error

Activity Four: Code

Students apply what they learned about patterns to codes. They interpret and create codes, as well as apply graphing strategies to data to search for patterns and codes in alphanumeric data. This connects back to the challenge through discussion of deciphering codes and patterns as "magic."

• Organizing and interpreting data
• Patterns and predictions

Activity Five: Probability

Using data to predict events is the focus as students perform simple experiments, then learn about the use and limitations of probability. Histograms are also used to describe results, providing another tool for determining the probability of a specific outcome.

• Interpreting patterns in data
• Theoretical probability

Activity Six: Indirect Measurement

Students use direct and indirect measurements to find the area of a penny. Comparing results emphasizes the value of probability in developing theories. They then read about the role of probability and indirect measurement in the discovery of atomic nuclei.

• Atomic particles
• Nucleus of atoms
• Nature of scientific discoveries

Activity Seven: Predicting Patterns...

Experimental and theoretical probabilities are explored with Pascal's Triangle, a human pinball machine, and computer simulations. From this, students learn strategies to find and describe patterns in random events and predict outcomes of similar events.

• Interpreting data
• Nature of scientific discoveries

Activity Eight: Radioactivity

Students use M&Ms to model half-life of radioactive atoms, learning another role patterns and predictions has in developing scientific theories. After learning more about scientific modeling, they read about radioactive decay and its use in dating substances.

• Nature of scientific discoveries
• Radioactive particles
• Radioactive decay

Activity Nine: Probability and the Magic Wand

Comparing theoretical probabilities of independent events to actual outcomes sets the stage for students to reflect on unusual coincidences. Students then further explore and calculate the probability of outcomes for events that could be used as "magic tricks."

• Nature of scientific discoveries